Publisher : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Place of publication :
Publication year : 2004
Thematic : Climate Change and Biodiversity
Language : English
Note
Although bioclimatic modelling is often used to estimate potential impacts of likely
climate changes, little has been done to assess the reliability and variability of
projections. Here, using four niche-based models, two methods to derive probability
values from models into presence–absence data and five climate change scenarios, I
project the future potential habitats of 1350 European plant species for 2050. All 40
different projections of species turnover across Europe suggested high potential species
turnover (up to 70%) in response to climate change. However variability in the potential
distributional changes of species across climate scenarios was obscured by a strong
variability in projections arising from alternative, yet equally justifiable, niche-based
models. Therefore, projections of future species distributions and derived community
descriptors cannot be reliably discussed unless model uncertainty is quantified
explicitly. I propose and test an alternative way to account for modelling variability
when deriving estimates of species turnover (with and without dispersal) according to a
range of climate change scenarios representing various socio-economic futures.
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Keywords :
Encoded by : Christian Elloran
